![]() If approximately nine times more individuals are exposed, there are three times more infected people at the end of the epidemic and IFR = 0.47%. However, these rates depend on the initial number of exposed individuals. The infection fatality rate (IFR) is 0.57%, and it is 2.37% if twice the reported number of casualties is assumed. The incubation period providing a better fit to the dead individuals is 4.25 days, and the infectious period is 4 days, with a fatality rate of 0.00144/day. The predicted death toll is approximately 15,600 casualties, with 2.7 million infected individuals at the end of the epidemic. The peak occurs at day 37 (March 31) approximately, with a reproduction ratio R 0 of 3 initially, 1.36 at day 22, and 0.8 after day 35, indicating different degrees of lockdown. ![]() Then, we consider the Lombardy case and calibrate the model with the number of dead individuals to date (May 5, 2020) and constrain the parameters on the basis of values reported in the literature. First, we perform an analysis of the results of the model by varying the parameters and initial conditions (in order for the epidemic to start, there should be at least one exposed or one infectious human). The example may ideally regard the situation in the Italian Region of Lombardy, where the epidemic started on February 24, but by no means attempts to perform a rigorous case study in view of the lack of suitable data and the uncertainty of the different parameters, namely, the variation of the degree of home isolation and social distancing as a function of time, the initial number of exposed individuals and infected people, the incubation and infectious periods, and the fatality rate. We implement an SEIR model to compute the infected population and the number of casualties of this epidemic. ![]() 5Independent Researcher, Haywards Heath, United KingdomĪn epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread in Northern Italy with a strong contagion rate.4Department of Mathematics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States.3Departamento de Energía, IGPUBA, Universidad de Buenos Aires, FIUBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina.2School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, China.1National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics - OGS, Trieste, Italy.Santos 2,3,4 Claudio Bagaini 5 Jing Ba 2 *
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